600 000 more face poverty
Fidings of a new research show that 600 000 more Malawians or about 2.6 percent of the population will slide into the poverty hole next year due to the impact of El Niño weather pattern.
The researchers unveiled the gloomy picture in virtual presentations on Wednesday of sub-national implications with a focus on Ethiopia, Malawi and Zambia.
In a socioeconomic analysis for Malawi, the researchers said the 600 000 will be thrown into poverty due to El Niño which will result in low crop yields, falling farm incomes and rising food prices.
Hosted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (Ifpri), the discussion included officials from the National Planning Commission (NPC).
In their presentation, Ifpri foresight and policy modelling director James Thurlow and NPC research manager Andrew Jamali said El Niño effects will trigger poverty notably through falling farm incomes and rising food prices.
Said Thurlow: “Poverty is already high in Malawi. Many households near the poverty line live in urban areas and are not subsistence farmers.
“El Niño pushes more households even deeper into poverty. Urban poor are particularly vulnerable to rising food prices. Poverty still rises in rural areas.”
He said in case this year, 368 000 people out of which 197 000 are from urban areas will be affected.
But if it turns out to be a typical adverse El Niño year, he said as many as 620 000, out of whom 506 000 will be from urban areas, will head into poverty.
The two experts also indicated that El Niño is expected to reduce calorie availability, which will force about 498 000 children to experience undernourishment, especially in rural households.
“Rural households experience a larger rise in undernourishment than poverty. Higher maize prices cannot offset decline in maize availability,” said Thurlow.
On what is being done by the NPC which is spearheading the Malawi 2063, Jamali said they are facilitating evidence-based decision-making, including providing research-based advice to ministries, agencies, the Presidency and Parliament on the El Niño threat.
He said: “We have recommended stockpiling food, maximising strategic grain reserves, and allowing private food imports, including maize and rice.
“We encourage strong extension outreach on these measures and involve non-governmental organisations and private sector players.”
In an earlier interview with The Nation, Minister of Agriculture Sam Kawale said they have been encouraging farmers to plant with the first rains, among other initiatives, to overcome the El Niño phenomenon.
He said: “In the absence of a specific period when the dry spells will hit, the ministry has been encouraging farmers to prepare their crop fields in good time.
“We have been encouraging them to plant at the onset of the rains so that maybe the crop may escape being hit by the dry spells during critical periods of crop development.”
Earlier last month, a joint policy note from NPC and Ifpri projected that the El Niño weather effect could reduce Malawi’s maize production by 22.5 percent, which would essentially reduce growth domestic product by 4.4 percent in 2024.
The situation has further been exacerbated by climate change and natural calamities such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones.
There has also been a substantial rise in the price of major food commodities such as maize following the recent 44 percent devaluation of the kwacha on November 9 2023.
